§ EXAMPLE
W3.
Bolt-On Market Sizing Worked Example
Anonymised UK mid-market CDD worked example.
§ DIRECT ANSWER
Bolt-On Market Sizing Worked Example: anonymised triangulation and what it changed at IC.
Target was a UK business-services bolt-on at EV £60m. Top-down: trade-body turnover survey put UK serviceable market at £1.2bn. Bottom-up: 4,800 UK companies in the target segment from Companies House, ARPU £240k from customer triangulation = £1.15bn. Triangulated TAM £1.15-1.2bn.
§ 1.1Synergy case impact
Sponsor had assumed £2bn TAM in the heads-of-terms model. The CDD finding compressed the cross-sell synergy by 40%. IC accepted the revised number; price chip negotiated at SPA stage.
§ 1.2Sources
VERIFIED 21 JUN 2026NEXT REVIEW 21 SEP 2026SRC: ICAEW CF; BVCA Industry Activity 2025-26